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Just When I Thought I Wouldn't Be Needing A Snowblower...

Yesterday, I finally fixed my snowblower, which had choked on a large edition of a Washington Post I had accidentally run over two weeks previously. I jokingly said I needed it to snow one more time to see if I really had repaired everything.

Then I looked at The Weather Channel app this morning. And they did not seem to get the joke.

Their forecast (as you see above) says the high on Saturday will be 36, the low will be 26, and that there is a 100 percent chance of snow. No hedging, no small crack of escapability in the forecast, 100 percent. Dead. Sold. Certain.

How much? The Weather Channel is saying 5 to 8 inches. Not flurries, not the usual spring slushy mess that is over before it begins. Five to 8 inches. A real storm. And that evening, it’s like an infomercial on a cable channel late at night: Wait, there’s more! The chance drops to 50 percent, but it’s for an additional 1 to 3 inches.

So if my math is correct, The Weather Channel is saying we could have 6 to 11 inches of snow on the ground by Sunday morning. Which is the 7th day of April. This would break all records for snowfall in the month of April in Ashburn, Northern Virginia, and probably most of the Eastern United States.

I am usually very skeptical of any forecast that calls for large amounts of snow, no matter what time of year. Forecasts for big snows make money. They drive ratings in television, clicks on the internet and traffic to websites. Rarely are they true, although at least three times in the 18 years I’ve lived up here, the perfect storm has come together and dumped two feet of snow in my driveway.

If this involved medicine, you would probably seek a second opinion, and The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang is generally a great source to go to. They have scoffed at the report, calling it “Flake News” (vs. a kind of news certain people occupying a very high office in this country sometimes label The Post) and say The Weather Channel is merely spitting out computer models, and not adding in the human wisdom that, say, a Capital Weather Gang might.

Although it reads a little like “You can’t trust THEIR guess; you need to trust OUR guess,” CWG points out the models don’t take into account the warmth of the ground, the warmth of the existing air and the angle of the sun. They do, however, acknowledge that their weather models “have the D.C. area in the snow sweet spot for this storm.” But, they argue, if the storm shifts, there won’t be any snow. Which is the case in every forecast, no matter who makes it.

So to summarize, The Weather Channel says there will be a boatload of snow. The Washington Post says don’t believe it, even though their computer models say the same thing. And in both cases, it’s only Wednesday and much can happen between now and Saturday.

Nevertheless, I don’t think I will pack up my snowblower and move it to the back of the garage just quite yet….

1
 

Comments 1

Super User on Wednesday, 04 April 2018 17:04
No Snow in April, I refuse to believe it!

February warmest ever, March colder with snow, now this in April---Kammerer just trying to drive up ratings. HAS to be global warming. This is why baseball should only be played in warm weather cities or in domes for at least the 1st 3 series of the season--or until mid-April. Baseball players don't want to hit in the cold and baseball fans don't want to sit in it!

February warmest ever, March colder with snow, now this in April---Kammerer just trying to drive up ratings. HAS to be global warming. This is why baseball should only be played in warm weather cities or in domes for at least the 1st 3 series of the season--or until mid-April. Baseball players don't want to hit in the cold and baseball fans don't want to sit in it!
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light rain

86.7°F

Ashburn

Light Rain

Humidity: 43%

Wind: 9.17 m/h

Sun

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