It’s a Monday morning. The Hokies played their third straight game where they looked good. I’ve got on a Hokie sweatshirt and am filled with optimism.
So of course the first thing I did this morning was look up everyone’s schedules so I could answer the burning question of the day:
Do the Hokies still have a chance to make the ACC Championship game?
As you would expect, the answer is “it depends” and involves running the table over their remaining five games.
The ACC no longer has its Atlantic and Coastal divisions, so to make it to the title game you’ve got to be one of the two teams at the top of the standings. Right now there are four teams that are undefeated in league play, with Clemson at 5-0, Miami and SMU are 3-0, and Pitt is at 2-0. While it doesn’t affect the standings, Clemson and SMU have one loss overall, while Pitt and Miami are undefeated. Clemson’s loss was to No. 1 Georgia to start the season and SMU lost to Brigham Young the third week of the season.
Behind the unbeatens are three teams with 2-1 ACC records: Duke, Syracuse and Virginia Tech. The Hokies play at Syracuse and at Duke, so their fate is in their own hands when it comes to handing those teams a second loss and moving them out of the possibility of being tied for second.
For the Hokies to get in the top two, at least three of the four unbeatens need to lose so there is a four-way tie for second (assuming Virginia Tech beats Duke and Syracuse). Pitt and SMU play on Nov. 2, and a Pitt win knocks SMU from the league’s unbeatens. One week later on Nov. 9, Clemson comes to Blacksburg, and a Virginia Tech win puts a 1 in the loss column for the Tigers in league standings. One week after that on Nov. 16, Clemson plays in Pittsburgh. A win over the Panthers then creates that 4-way tie for second.
Virginia Tech would have the advantage over Clemson if there were only two teams tied for second because they’d have just beaten them. A 3 or 4-way logjam – which is far more likely to happen – would come down to tiebreaker rules.
Miami – as always – could be the wild card. They could run the table and truly be “back”, or they could stumble down the stretch and not even be in the conversation. Of their final 5 games, they play Florida State, Duke and Wake Forest in Miami, and I think the game with Duke could be interesting.
They play at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 and finish their season on the Saturday after Thanksgiving at the dome in Syracuse, and Miami could just as easily lose both as win them. Syracuse is particularly a place where upsets seem to happen, and an Orange win probably plunges everything into a multi-team tiebreaker deal of 1-loss teams that involves half the ACC.
The ACC football race could end up being must-watch TV the final night of the season.
I just hope it doesn’t come down to a last-second play that has to be decided by instant replay 😊
